Recently, Associate Professor Cui Qi, in collaboration with Professor Liu Yu’s team from the College of Urban and Environmental Sciences at Peking University and Professor Du Mingxi from the School of Public Policy and Administration at Xi’an Jiaotong University, made significant progress in evaluating the interaction mechanisms of carbon mitigation policies. Their research article, titled “Mitigation policies interactions delay the achievement of carbon neutrality in China”, was published online in Nature Climate Change, a top-tier international journal in the field.
The article was co-authored by Dr. Yang Lingyu from the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Professor Liu Yu, Professor Du Mingxi, and Associate Professor Cui Qi, who also served as co-corresponding authors. In addition to the research article, the team was invited to publish a Policy Brief in Nature Climate Change, offering targeted policy recommendations for China's carbon neutrality goals.
China has introduced a wide range of policies to advance its dual carbon goals, including the development of renewable energy, increased electrification of end-use sectors, improvements in energy efficiency, and carbon pricing mechanisms. However, the effectiveness of these mitigation efforts is significantly influenced by the interactions among different policies—an area that remains insufficiently studied, particularly regarding how these interactions affect China’s carbon neutrality timeline.
To address this knowledge gap, the research team constructed a policy domain comprising 1,295 scenarios based on four major categories of mitigation strategies in China. Using the China Econometric Energy and Environmental General Equilibrium (CEEGE) model, the study evaluated the emission reduction outcomes and economic costs of various policy combinations, incorporating the interactions among policies. The objective was to inform the design of more efficient and synergistic decarbonization strategies.
The results reveal that interactions among mitigation policies significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060—by as much as 84%—and delay the average achievement year by five to six years (Figure 1). Under the Independent Single-Strategy Assumption (ISSA), 23.5% of scenarios reach carbon neutrality by 2060, with an average target year of 2054. However, under the Assumed Synergistic Interaction Assumption (ASIA), only 3.7% of scenarios achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, with the average delayed to 2059. This discrepancy arises primarily from how different policy combinations either constrain or expand each other's implementation space—complementary policies enhance joint effectiveness, while competitive ones restrict it.
Figure 1: China’s CO₂ emission pathways and distribution of carbon neutrality achievement years (2020–2060)
Among the various mitigation strategies, the combination of carbon pricing and renewable energy policies (C&R) shows a trade-off between emissions reduction and economic cost. In contrast, the combination of renewable energy and electrification policies (R&E) demonstrates a synergistic effect, promoting both emissions reductions and economic resilience. Other combinations exhibit trade-offs in emissions mitigation but synergy in economic outcomes (Figure 2). These findings suggest that instead of merely intensifying policy implementation, policymakers should prioritize improving policy efficiency, strategically sequencing policy rollout, and optimizing policy mixes.
For China and other developing countries in the energy transition phase, promoting the joint implementation of renewable energy and electricity substitution policies, and adopting a phased approach to advancing renewable energy and carbon pricing policies, can fully leverage the synergistic effects of policy combinations in emission reduction and economic development.
Figure 2: Emission reduction effects and economic costs of different policy combinations underthe policy interdependence perspective
Overall, this study reveals critical trade-offs and synergies in China's carbon neutrality policy framework from a sequencing and combination perspective. It provides evidence-based insights to support the efficient and coordinated advancement of China’s dual carbon goals. The research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, the Young Top Talent Support Program of Xi’an Jiaotong University, the Beijing Natural Science Foundation, the Shandong Taishan Scholars Program, and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation.
