Huangdao Business Lecture Series, No. 136
Abstract:
To respond cost-effectively and flexibly to the volatile demand for oil products, gas station replenishment systems must detect potential stockouts in real time and generate replenishment plans accordingly, ensuring supply continuity while minimizing costs. However, if sales forecasts are underestimated, the system may fail to identify imminent stockouts, leading to supply shortages. Conversely, overestimations may result in excessive replenishment frequency, higher inventory levels, and increased replenishment costs.
To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel forecasting approach that integrates fuzzy recognition of sales patterns with deep learning-based predictive models. This method simultaneously accounts for the temporal dependencies and uncertainties of sales data, leveraging the strengths of both point prediction and quantile forecasting models. The approach aims to minimize replenishment costs while preventing stockouts, thereby enabling intelligent replenishment systems to support dynamic and adaptive inventory management.
Speaker Bio:
Dr. Sun Lijun, Ph.D. Supervisor
Professor Sun currently serves as the Head of the Master's Program and Deputy Head of the Doctoral Program in the National Key Discipline of Management Science and Engineering. She has received several prestigious honors, including a nomination for the National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation Award by the Ministry of Education, Provincial Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation Award, Outstanding Doctoral Supervisor Award, and the Second Prize for Scientific Research in Higher Education (Humanities and Social Sciences) by the Ministry of Education.
Her primary research areas include Smart Business and Logistics Management, and Data-Driven Intelligent Decision Optimization. She has independently led four National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) projects and two Postdoctoral Science Foundation projects (including one with special funding). She has published over 50 academic papers in leading domestic and international journals such as Transportation Research Part E, International Journal of Production Research, Decision Support Systems, Journal of Management Sciences in China, Management World, and Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice. She has authored two monographs, holds three national invention patents, and eight registered software copyrights.
Professor Sun also holds the following academic positions: Vice Chair of the Intelligent Manufacturing Engineering Management Subcommittee of the Chinese Society of Management Science and Engineering, Member of the Artificial Intelligence and Management Applications Committee, Executive Council Member of the Network Science Branch of the Chinese Society of Quantitative and Technical Economics, and Deputy Secretary-General of the Intelligent Manufacturing Systems Engineering Committee of the Systems Engineering Society of China.
